SipSource launched its newest quarterly forecast replace for the Spirits class, projecting rolling 12-month 9L case depletion progress charges by means of Q2 2026.
The most recent replace reveals a number of rising developments that sign stabilizing unfavorable progress charges by the top of 2025, signaling a shift away from the steep and rising decline ranges seen between 2022 and 2024:
- Core Spirits in whole are projected to backside out at -4.56% progress by the top of 2025 earlier than recovering barely to -4.09% by Q2 2026.
- The extreme downward development and unfavorable progress charges we had seen for Rum, U.S. Whiskey, Vodka and Brandy/Cognac are anticipated to largely flatten by the primary half of 2026, albeit in unfavorable territory.
- Tequila/Agave, a class that has skilled vital change within the stage of will increase over the previous few years, is on a forecasted path to stabilization, nearing +1% rolling 12-month progress by mid-2026—buoyed particularly by sustained client curiosity in premium tiers (from $20-$100).
“The flattening of unfavorable progress curves could sign an encouraging bottoming out of developments in key classes,” mentioned SipSource analyst Danny Brager in a information launch. “Whereas challenges stay, the information reveals a transparent transition interval—giving producers, distributors, and retailers some cause for optimism as they plan for what’s subsequent.”
To replicate the potential affect of U.S. commerce coverage modifications, some pessimistic progress situations have been adjusted to mannequin anticipated market disruptions, in line with SipSource.
